As per the latest report released by IMD, India’s southwest monsoon for 2011 (June-September) over the country as a whole is likely to be below normal to 90-96% of LPA. The long period average rainfall over the country as a whole for 1951-2000 is 89 cm.
Rainfall over the country during July and August 2011 is forecasted to be 93% and 94% of LPA both with a model error of ± 9 %. However, weather officials believe that monsoon will gain momentum from mid July onwards.
Since, sowing of Kharif pulses has already been started in southern parts of the country and is lagging behind normal sowing level compared to the last year and likely deviation in the progress of monsoon will further delay in sowing in most of the parts of the country and hence spark the prices of pulses.
However, it is too early to assess the actual impact of monsoon on sowing of pulses but the key factor is spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall in key growing regions and if it turns out to be even, then sub normal monsoon will have a minimal impact on sowing of pulses.