The recent prediction by India Meteorological Department, a below normal monsoon keeping India’s government in dilemma to decide on export of non-basmati rice.
The major rice producing states like West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh have so far received lower than normal rains in the current season. Farmers in these areas have been delaying paddy transplantation operations which were already under progress. If rains fail to pick up in the next two weeks in these areas, it could slash the country''s rice production.
Earlier, Agriculture ministry expected a record rice production of 102 million tonnes in the 2011-12 crop years on better initial progress of the monsoon. The government increased the support price of paddy by Rs. 80/quintal to Rs. 1080/quintal for the Kharif 2011 to encourage farmers for planting rice which in turn will increase the production.
But prices are unlikely to surge as the government is holding massive stocks. India''s rice inventory was 27.64 million tonnes on June 1 against a target of 17.1 million tonnes.
But concerns about rice production due the variation in monsoon rainfall are likely to protract the government''s delay in deciding whether to allow non-basmati rice exports.